Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: Lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System
Kennedy, R. E., Serbin, S. P., Dietze, M. C., Andersen, H., Babcock, C., et al. (2024). Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: Lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System. Environmental Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8be0
Title | Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: Lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System |
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Genre | Article |
Author(s) | R. E. Kennedy, S. P. Serbin, M. C. Dietze, H. Andersen, C. Babcock, D. F. Baker, M. E. Brown, K. J. Davis, L. Duncanson, S. Feng, A. T. Hudak, J. Liu, P. L. Patterson, Brett Raczka, M. A. Cochrane, E. A. Sepúlveda Carlo, R. Vargas |
Abstract | Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across scientific fields hinders effective communication. As a microcosm of diverse fields within Earth Science, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) provides a useful crucible in which to identify cross-cutting concepts of uncertainty. The CMS convened the Uncertainty Working Group (UWG), a group of specialists across disciplines, to evaluate and synthesize efforts to characterize uncertainty in CMS projects. This paper represents efforts by the UWG to build a heuristic framework designed to evaluate data products and communicate uncertainty to both scientific and non-scientific end users. We consider four pillars of uncertainty: origins, severity, stochasticity versus incomplete knowledge, and spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Using a common vocabulary and a generalized workflow, the framework introduces a graphical heuristic accompanied by a narrative, exemplified through contrasting case studies. Envisioned as a versatile tool, this framework provides clarity in reporting uncertainty, guiding users and tempering expectations. Beyond CMS, it stands as a simple yet powerful means to communicate uncertainty across diverse scientific communities. |
Publication Title | Environmental Research Letters |
Publication Date | Dec 1, 2024 |
Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8be0 |
OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qc07vj |
OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
CISL Affiliations | TDD, DARES |