Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: Lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System

Kennedy, R. E., Serbin, S. P., Dietze, M. C., Andersen, H., Babcock, C., et al. (2024). Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: Lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System. Environmental Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8be0

Title Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: Lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System
Genre Article
Author(s) R. E. Kennedy, S. P. Serbin, M. C. Dietze, H. Andersen, C. Babcock, D. F. Baker, M. E. Brown, K. J. Davis, L. Duncanson, S. Feng, A. T. Hudak, J. Liu, P. L. Patterson, Brett Raczka, M. A. Cochrane, E. A. Sepúlveda Carlo, R. Vargas
Abstract Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across scientific fields hinders effective communication. As a microcosm of diverse fields within Earth Science, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) provides a useful crucible in which to identify cross-cutting concepts of uncertainty. The CMS convened the Uncertainty Working Group (UWG), a group of specialists across disciplines, to evaluate and synthesize efforts to characterize uncertainty in CMS projects. This paper represents efforts by the UWG to build a heuristic framework designed to evaluate data products and communicate uncertainty to both scientific and non-scientific end users. We consider four pillars of uncertainty: origins, severity, stochasticity versus incomplete knowledge, and spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Using a common vocabulary and a generalized workflow, the framework introduces a graphical heuristic accompanied by a narrative, exemplified through contrasting case studies. Envisioned as a versatile tool, this framework provides clarity in reporting uncertainty, guiding users and tempering expectations. Beyond CMS, it stands as a simple yet powerful means to communicate uncertainty across diverse scientific communities.
Publication Title Environmental Research Letters
Publication Date Dec 1, 2024
Publisher's Version of Record https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8be0
OpenSky Citable URL https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qc07vj
OpenSky Listing View on OpenSky
CISL Affiliations TDD, DARES

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