Enhancing sub-seasonal soil moisture forecasts through land initialization
Duan, Y., Kumar, S., Maruf, M., Kavoo, T. M., Rangwala, I., et al. (2025). Enhancing sub-seasonal soil moisture forecasts through land initialization. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00987-0
| Title | Enhancing sub-seasonal soil moisture forecasts through land initialization |
|---|---|
| Genre | Article |
| Author(s) | Y. Duan, S. Kumar, M. Maruf, T. M. Kavoo, I. Rangwala, Jadwiga H. Richter, Anne A. Glanville, Teagan King, M. Esit, Brett Raczka, Kevin D. Raeder |
| Abstract | We assess the relative contributions of land, atmosphere, and oceanic initializations to the forecast skill of root zone soil moisture (SM) utilizing the Community Earth System Model version 2 Sub to Seasonal climate forecast experiments (CESM2-S2S). Using eight sensitivity experiments, we disentangle the individual impacts of these three components and their interactions on the forecast skill for the contiguous United States. The CESM2-S2S experiment, in which land states are initialized while atmosphere and ocean remain in their climatological states, contributes 91 ± 3% of the total sub-seasonal forecast skill across varying soil moisture conditions during summer and winter. Most SM predictability stems from the soil moisture memory effect. Additionally, land-atmosphere coupling contributes 50% of the land-driven soil moisture predictability. A comparative analysis of the CESM2-S2S SM forecast skills against two other climate models highlights the potential for enhancing soil moisture forecast accuracy by improving the representation of soil moisture-precipitation feedback. |
| Publication Title | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Publication Date | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00987-0 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7x63sbq |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| CISL Affiliations | DARES |