IMAGe refocuses IPCC projections
Doug Nychka, director of CISL's Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences (IMAGe), recently put statistical techniques to work analyzing trends in greenhouse gas emissions. The study, led by Patricia Romero Lankao, aimed to understand how differences between industrialized and developing countries affect carbon dioxide emissions, and examine whether developing countries will be able to reduce emissions through efficiency improvements over the next few decades. Contrary to earlier projections, the new study shows this will be a far greater challenge than originally estimated. See full news release »
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The image (left) is termed a scatterplot matrix that illustrates the scaled values for Gross domestic product, percent urban population and percent of population between the ages of 15-64 for 75 of the
most populous countries (Data Source: World Bank).
The different colors indicate 8 groups of similar countries based on these variables using an objective hierarchical clustering method. The green group consists of developed countries such as the US, Canada and European countries. Other groupings represent different gradations of affluence and population distribution. For example, the orange group consists of developing Asian countries: China, Thailand and Sri Lanka while the yellow group consists of Indonesia, Romania, and members of the former Soviet Union. Click on image to enlarge. |
The image (right) indicates how the total CO2 emissions has changed over time for each group and provides a near term projection for the future based on the past 11 years of data. It suggests that the emissions for the developed countries
(green) will continue to increase and will be at a higher rate that the other groups. However, the most recent years of the
cluster that includes China (orange) suggests a change in trend from the long term rate. Click on image to enlarge. |
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